Electronics and Semiconductors

In 50 Years, Self-driving Cars Will be the Norm, Study Says

25 October 2018

Acceptance of autonomous vehicles. Source: IntelAcceptance of autonomous vehicles. Source: IntelThe move to autonomous vehicles will begin slowly as companies across the automotive landscape begin to roll out next-generation cars in the coming years.

But according to a new study from Intel Corp., in about 50 years, self-driving cars will be commonplace. This coincides with a previous study Intel did last year that showed the autonomous driving market will generate a passenger-centric future worth $7 trillion by 2050.

That previous study said that self-driving vehicles have the potential to save about 585,000 lives from 2035 to 2045, however, given some of the current issues with autonomous vehicles — including the death of a pedestrian at the hands of an Uber test car — some consumers do not feel safe around the vehicles.

“We must bridge the gap between acceptance of today’s automated driving assist features and full autonomy,” said Jack Weast, senior principal engineer and vice president of AV standards at Mobileye, a division of Intel. “Today, passengers are asked to blindly trust a manufacturer’s ‘black box’ safety approach. What is needed is for the industry and policymakers to rally around a transparent safety model that builds trust between humans and machines.”

What Passengers Will Do

In the study, Intel asked consumers what they expect to do in a self-driving car in the next 50 years. The answers include:

  • 58% said they would enjoy entertainment.
  • 57% said they would socialize.
  • 33% would host meetings.
  • 26% would use the time to groom.
  • 14% would use the time not driving to exercise.

In addition to providing passengers with the ability to do more than just commute or be behind the wheel, the U.S. Department of Transportation estimates self-driving cars could reduce traffic fatalities by 94% by eliminating accidents due to human error.

In order for widespread use of autonomous vehicles to take hold, availability, education and acceptance of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) will need to be a priority for developers, Intel said. Without these aspects, it is unthinkable for consumers to take a universal leap from driving themselves to letting the car do the work, the company added.

For more information about the study, go to Intel.

To contact the author of this article, email PBrown@globalspec.com


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Discussion – 4 comments

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Re: In 50 Years, Self-driving Cars Will be the Norm, Study Says
#1
2018-Nov-08 9:46 AM

The proven, undisputed heavyweight champion of passengers' safety is Japan's bullet trains, which have never suffered a single fatality in 54 years of operation.

Japan's bullet trains are all human controlled.

Silicon Valley's Autonomous Vehicles have been in testing mode only for a few months and have already killed several unfortunates who either bought into the Con Valley's self proclaimed, overhyped BS, or they were totally innocent bystanders.

When a driver of a bullet train or a car is tasked with their own and their passenger's safety they are extremely diligent about providing that safety. (With the obvious exception of drunk drivers etc who disregard all safety rules.)

When teenage Con Valley programmers and their egotistical bosses like Elon Musk have no skin in the game they have already proven they don't give a rat's ass about anyone's safety as they play their computer games with other people's lives.

This survey's authors and its participants have yet to understand that when safety is an individual concern it's paramount, but when it's a boardroom or a Con Valley CEO's ego concern, it's dispensable.

Re: In 50 Years, Self-driving Cars Will be the Norm, Study Says
#2
2018-Nov-14 11:11 AM

I'm sceptical that basing future predictions on a survey of the public is very scientific.

If in the 1960s the public was surveyed about flying cars it does not follow that they would now (50 years later) be a common occurrence.

Re: In 50 Years, Self-driving Cars Will be the Norm, Study Says
#3
2018-Nov-15 8:14 AM

As a driver the idea of self driving cars where the occupant do nothing more then plays games listens to music and an assortment of other actives scares me. You don't place an air plan in autopilot and then let the pilots go party with the passengers, so why allow the driver of a car moving at high speeds do this? I am a tech guy and I am not opposed to progress in the automotive sector I but think there should always be a driver in the drivers seat in case of an emergency. No mater how well we engineer our product failure at some point is inevitable.

Re: In 50 Years, Self-driving Cars Will be the Norm, Study Says
#4
In reply to #3
2018-Nov-15 4:32 PM

Hi I'm a Mech. Eng. who worked on the battery-powered automatic "ULTra" vehicles installed at T5 Heathrow. It took us over 5 years to have the "safety Case" approved by the UK HSE and then only if the vehicles travelled in their own dedicated guideways separated from all other traffic, pedestrians, and animals. In addition our navigation and control systems had to show 3 levels of redundancy and we were forced to operate at 6 second headways and prove vehicles could be stopped safely in "brick-wall" lead vehicle stop conditions. Our max. speed was limited to 40kph.

For these safety reasons I believe full AV should never be allowed as proposed by Tesla et allia.

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