In an updated forecast, International Data Corp. (IDC) sees smartphone shipments growing 1.0% year-on-year in 2025 reaching 1.24 billion units.
Previously, IDC forecasted growth of 0.6% year-over-year in June of 2025. This was way down from the 2.3% growth originally forecasted by the market research firm earlier in 2025.
The new forecast still sees soft demand with an ongoing troublesome economic situation as cause for the minor growth. Healthy replacement demand will help push growth into 2026 and beyond where IDC forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.5% from 2024 to 2029.
IDC said that this CAGR could change given impact from current or additional tariffs that are placed on countries by the U.S.
“While tariff volatility continues to pose high uncertainty, for now it is just background noise for the majority of smartphone vendors,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director for IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “OEMs must push forward their diversification and production plans to ensure there are enough shipments to fulfill demand which remains healthy in most markets, in select segments.”
Popal added that strong growth is expected in the U.S. and Middle East and Africa (MEA) and Asia Pacific that will offset the decline in the smartphone market in China.
“With this mixed bag of regional trends, the key to success for OEMs will be identifying where those pockets of opportunities are,” Popal said.
Mixed growth bag
While the smartphone market in 2025 is expected to see a 5% growth in average selling prices and a 6.0% growth in value, unit growth remains soft at 1%.
IDC said OEMs must continue to drive investments into new technologies like:
- Slimmer designs
- Generative AI
- Foldable form factors
- Camera features
This will help to generate consumer interest and help ongoing trends of premiumization. Other programs like promotions and interest free financing will help make higher priced phones more attractive, IDC said.
“GenAI continues to be a significant focus for vendors in differentiating themselves as they integrate AI features into their devices to drive shipments,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “IDC forecasts over 370 million GenAI smartphones to be shipped globally in 2025, contributing to 30% share. As the number of use cases expands and consumer education increases, we expect on-device GenAI capabilities to be incorporated into more mid-range devices, making them a standard must-have feature sooner rather than later — boosting GenAI share to over 70% by 2029.”
