The lockdowns and work-at-home orders caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have resulted in a surge of sales in PCs. As employees were forced to work out of their homes, corporate budgets for computers increased and consumers bought more PCs to stay connected. The result showed a growth of more than 10% in 2020.
But according to new research from International Data Corp. (IDC), this growth is expected to stall in 2021 and eventually decline in 2022 before growing again in future years.
In the fourth quarter, IDC forecasts that shipments of desktop and notebook PCs will grow 18.2% year-over-year as consumers take advantage of deals during the holiday season and upgrade equipment for remote work as continued lockdown orders remain in effect. Of this, sales of notebook PCs will grow 26.4% in the fourth quarter and are expected to grow 3.2% in 2021. Desktop PCs, however, will suffer a decline in both periods.
"The momentum in the PC market has been impressive to say the least," said Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "Earlier this year, it seemed like this would be a six-month bump to the industry, but as we look at the supply chain pipeline into 2021, it's clear that the surge has more legs.”
Reith credits the education backlog and many school districts securing inventory as part of the reason for sustained growth in the PC market. Simultaneously, consumers are buying low-end and high-end gaming machines as well as PC monitors, TVs, gaming consoles and smartphones, all likely due to lockdowns from COVID-19.
"Not only do we expect more PCs to ship this year and next, but the fundamental shift in everyone's workflow is also expected to have a lasting impact on the PC market in 2022 and beyond," said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "Longer term forecasts for PC shipments and average selling prices have increased as households inch towards one PC per person while buying PCs further up the stack."
Meanwhile, tablets are also growing as a result of the COVID-19 lockdowns and mandatory orders to stay-at-home. IDC forecasts the tablet market to grow 10% year-over-year in 2020.
The full research can be found in IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker.
