In the past six out of seven years, the global smartphone market has contracted yearly.
According to a new forecast from International Data Corp. (IDC), the year 2024 should change this with smartphone shipments expected to reach 1.2 billion units, growing 2.8% year-over-year.
The better news is that smartphone shipments are forecast to growth in the low single digits through 2028.
"It's been a challenging run for the smartphone market, even when looking at the years leading into the pandemic," said Ryan Reith, group vice president with IDC's Worldwide Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers. "While the world continues to face a challenging macroeconomic environment, several device categories that compete for a share of wallet are seeing a return to growth, including personal computers.”
But smartphones remain a ubiquitous device that consumers will need although price increases and improved durability of these phones will continue to lengthen replacement cycles. This could dampen new shipment growth, Reith said.
What’s driving growth
Growth in 2024 will come from rising demand in emerging markets as well as replacement cycles coming into play in many regions. However, recent technology developments are bringing new energy to the smartphone space -- specifically, foldable smartphones and artificial intelligence (AI).
Foldable phones are growing rapidly with 37% of expected growth year-over-year in 2024, reaching 25 million shipments. Next-generation AI experiences are also on the rise with more generative AI being included in phones as well as new apps to use them. IDC forecasts 170 million AI smartphones will ship this year, about 15% of the total market and surpassing even AI PCs.
"Although total smartphone shipments remain below pre-pandemic levels, the good news is that consumers are willing to pay more for their phones,” said Nabila Popal, research director with IDC's Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers. “This will be further fueled by innovations in foldables and the idea of next-gen AI on a device.”
Beyond 2024, use cases will evolve and industry players will continue to push forward with AI technology that will enable smartphones to be the device driving the AI revolution into every home, Popal said.
