Global smartphone shipments in 2025 are being buoyed by sales of Apple iPhones resulting in a 1.5% year-on-year growth to 1.25 billion units, according to new research from International Data Corp (IDC).
An accelerated performance from Apple in the holiday quarter and overall yearly sales are forecast to grow 6.1% year-over-year, up from 3.9% in the previous year. Other reasons for the growth include progress in key emerging markets and stabilization of phone sales in China.
“Apple is set to have a record year in 2025 with shipments forecast to cross 247 million units, thanks to the phenomenal success of its latest iPhone 17 series,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “In China, Apple’s largest market, massive demand for iPhone 17 has significantly accelerated Apple’s performance.”
Popal said Apple ranked first in October and November in China with more than 20% market share. Overall, fourth quarter forecast is a growth from 9% to 17% year-over-year in China, IDC said.
Apple’s strong performance has turned a projected 1% decline in China for 2025 to a positive 3% growth.
“The success story is replicated across all regions, including the US and Western Europe that had previously slowed down,” Popal said. “This calendar year will not only be a record period for Apple in terms of shipments but also in value, which is forecast to exceed $261 billion, with 7.2% YoY growth in 2025.”
Decline set for 2026
IDC forecasts the smartphone forecast for 2026 has been revised downward from 1.2% growth to a 0.9% decline.
This is the result of a component shortage and product cycle adjustments, the market research firm said. This includes Apple’s strategic shift of its next base iPhone model from the fall of 2026 until early 2027. This means a likely 4.2% downward trend for iOS shipments in 2026.
The component shortage will constrain supply and raise prices, impacting low- to mid-range Android devices significantly, IDC said. Smartphone units will face a soft decline in 2026, but average selling prices (ASPs) will increase to $465.
“As memory components become more limited and more expensive, manufacturers face increasing pressure to raise prices,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Vendors need to adopt different strategies to protect their market share. While some OEMs will inevitably be forced to raise prices, others will adjust their portfolio towards pricier models with higher margins to absorb some of the memory impact on BOM. Next year will be a challenging time for the industry, however, IDC still believes the market could see record ASPs."
