Cost Modeling

IPC Downgrades PCB Forecast for 2013, Book-to-Bill Remains Positive

06 August 2013

North American printed circuit board sales will grow just 0.9 percent in 2013 because of slower than expected demand in the first half as a result of overall sluggish economic growth, according to the revised forecast of the Association Connecting Electronics Industries (IPC). The association previously had forecast 3 percent growth for the industry in 2013.

IPC said it revised its forecast because board shipments were weaker than expected earlier in the year and because revised economic forecasts showed slower economic growth ahead.

IPC also released sales and new order figures for June. Shipments and new orders of boards declined in June, although the board book-to-bill ratio remained positive, according to the association. Board shipments (billings) decreased 3.4 percent in June 2013 from June 2012, and new orders (bookings) decreased 6.1 percent year over year.

Year to date, PCB industry shipments were down 4.7 percent and bookings were down 1.3 percent. Compared to May, PCB shipments in June increased 12 percent, but bookings dropped 3.6 percent. Shipments outpaced bookings in June for the first time in seven months, causing the PCB book-to-bill ratio to slip to 1.05 from 1.10 in May. A book-to-bill ratio of 1.05 means board manufacturers received $105 in new orders for every $100 of boards that they shipped in June.

Until June, monthly PCB orders outpaced sales every month since January, resulting in positive book-to-bill ratios for the past six months, said Sharon Starr, IPC director of market research.

Flexible circuit sales continued their year-on-year growth in June, but flexible bookings growth remained below last year's levels, according to the IPC. Rigid PCB sales and order both underperformed last year's levels, but the negative margin has improved in recent months, the association said.



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