Mobile Devices

Smartphone market to rebound in 2024

31 May 2024
Source: IDC

Global smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 4.0% in 2024 over last year due to rapid growth of Android-based cell phones in emerging regions, according to new research from International Data Corp. (IDC).

Shipments will reach 1.21 billion units with the recovery expected to continue into 2025 with a 2.3% growth forecast, IDC said. During the remainder of the five-year forecast seeing low single-digit growth.

"While the overall market will see a relatively strong recovery this year with 4% growth coming from almost all regions, it is important to note that the majority of the growth will be driven by Android, which is expected to grow significantly faster at 4.8% compared to 0.7% for iOS (Apple)," said Nabila Popal, research director with IDC's Worldwide Tracker Team.

Android smartphones have been struggling for two years and Apple smartphones are softening due to increasing competition in China, which is denting growth potential. However, if Apple can demonstrate clear use cases for its artificial intelligence (AI) smartphone strategy, it could accelerate the demand for iPhones, especially in China, Popal added.

"Regardless of how this plays out, the good news is the smartphone market is finally out of the woods with a clear path of recovery ahead,” Popal said.

5G adoption expands

5G smartphones will grow nearly 16% in 2024 with adoption expanding across all regions and markets, IDC said. This growth will be followed by another year of double-digit growth in 2025 as the 5G market climbs to 74.4%, up from 67.2% this year.

“With 5G saturation in most developed markets, the growth of 5G in emerging markets will play a central role in driving shipments throughout the forecast period,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “While the overall smartphone market will have a 2.3% CAGR from 2024-2028, 5G shipments will deliver an impressive 9.1% growth rate for the same time period."

To contact the author of this article, email PBrown@globalspec.com


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