In 2024, the semiconductor industry is expected to see global sales of $588 billion, up from an expected downward cycle of 9.4% in 2023 to $520 billion, according to market research firm Deloitte.
Deloitte said there are five big topics looking ahead to the year:
- Generative AI accelerator chips will grow significantly along with how chip vendors use it.
- Smart manufacturing will continue its growth trend.
- Cyberattacks on semiconductor IP will reach a whole new threat level.
- Export controls will continue to play a role in advanced node manufacturing and generative AI chips.
- Additional assembly and test capacity will be needed.
Return to growth
Additionally, after this typical cyclical semiconductor industry downturn, the biggest swing factor was the memory chip market, which is also typical. Memory sales in 2022 were $130 billion, about 23% of the total chip market, but dropped 31% in 2023. This year, memory is expected to reach 2022 levels.
PC and smartphone sales are also expected to grow 4% in 2024, after declines of 14% and 3.5%, respectfully. Deloitte said these two end markets are likely significantly important for the semiconductor industry given these segments represented 56% of the overall chip sales in 2022.
Healthcare and fab utilization are also expected to have significant growth in the first half of 2024.
The full research can be found in Deloitte’s 2024 Semiconductor Industry Outlook.
