ABI Research took a contrarian approach to end of year forecasts that typically look ahead to the new year and predict what technological innovations are likely to happen.
Instead, the market research firm named five technology trends that are unlikely to come to fruition given how advanced some of the markets are. ABI thinks the following will not happen in 2022:
1) Lack of meta(verse)
A very popular buzzword in the last half of 2021 is the growing prominence of the metaverse, a realization of the growing importance that extended reality (XR) is becoming in the electronics industry. Extended reality includes both augmented reality and virtual reality as sub-segments but also the crypto economy (in some cases).
The metaverse will not arrive in 2022, ABI Research said, nor will it in the next five years. It is more of a vision of what companies are looking to evolve the industry into. While there are numerous companies building versions of what they think the metaverse should be, it is not fully interconnected yet, nor will it be as it does not have any open standards and the world has not yet embraced XR.
2) Edge out
While general edge computing and mobile-access edge computing (MEC) will increase in deployments in 2022, it will be made by early adopters. As edge computing and financial viability are coupled with 5G networks, both private and public, the lack of affordable 5G services will not thrive globally.
3) Waiting for companions
Companion robots have been around for years and, unfortunately, have not had the best track record for performing well among consumers.
Prior to 2021, many social robot manufacturers have folded or canceled entire product lines due to lack of interest. But the market sparked again this year with the launch of Astro, Amazon’s first social robot.
However, ABI Research said it is unlikely that 2022 will be a breakout year for social robots, despite still having enormous potential.
4) Stuck in neutral
Because the automotive supply chain continues to struggle due to the ongoing chip shortage, no quick fixes are likely to help car supplies in 2022, ABI said. A combination of using property designs along with older process technologies has prolonged the crisis in the automotive sector. The decision by automakers in 2020 to cancel chip contracts because of COVID-19 will last beyond 2022 and ABI forecasts vehicle sales will not return to the $90 million sales mark until 2023 at the earliest.
5) Yeah, that chip shortage, good luck
ABI Research now forecasts that the chip shortage that has been impacting the supply chain since the end of 2020 will continue until 2023 when additional capacity, verification of real demand and inflationary impact on consumer spending is resolved.
Geopolitical issues and bringing new fab capacity online will continue to make the supply chain tight, particularly in specific industries such as automotive. COVID-19 variants won’t help matters as staffing and transportation issues may impact nations without high vaccination rates, leading to potential reductions in the ability to get semiconductor supplies and finished goods to the supply chain.
The complete research can be found in ABI’s whitepaper 70 Technology Trends That Will — And Will Not — Shape 2022.