Electronics and Semiconductors

China to own 45% of installed battery capacity globally by 2030

16 September 2022

Demand to reduce global net emissions, the rise in popularity of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and the overall automotive transition to electrification is pushing a surge in power battery demand, according to new research from TrendForce.

By 2024, the installed capacity of the global power battery market is expected to increase from a gigawatt per hour scale to a terawatt per hour scale. By 2030, TrendForce forecasts the global power battery installed base will exceed 3 TWh, of which China is expected to account for about 45% of the global total.

The EV power battery market demand forecast for Global and Chinese vendors through 2030. Source: TrendForce  The EV power battery market demand forecast for Global and Chinese vendors through 2030. Source: TrendForce Mainstream global power battery manufacturers are accelerating the expansion of production capacity with the world’s top leaders such as CATL, LG Energy, BYD, CALB, Samsung SDI and Panasonic have plans to reach 4.2 TWh of power and energy storage battery capacity by 2025. Chinese vendors will account for about 3.1 TWh as it expands rapidly to lead the world, TrendForce said.

Energy boom

The market for power and energy storage battery is booming due to the rapid growth of electric vehicles (EV) and electrochemical energy storage.

However, this is creating a strain for new energy battery raw materials. If the supply falls short of the demand, the rapid expansion of the power battery value chain could be paused. In the short term, raw materials such as lithium, cobalt and nickel will likely increase in price, thereby driving overall pricing of NEVs and storage.

As a side effect of the rapid increase in raw material pricing, battery manufacturers and even some EV companies are investing in mineral resources to accelerate the supply of materials, TrendForce said.

Recently, a report from AlixPartners saw raw material prices grow more than four-fold for EVs, the costs of which get passed to consumers. Additionally, Carlos Tavares, CEO of Stellantis, said that there is a looming EV battery and raw materials shortage coming in the years ahead, which threatens the automotive electrification transition. It will likely begin in the 2024-to-2025-time frame, causing a slow down in the following years, Tavares said.

To contact the author of this article, email PBrown@globalspec.com

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