Global photovoltaic (PV) capacity is forecast to reach new heights over the next five years, boosted by a reduction in market volatility and an increase in global demand, according to new research from IHS.
Solar capacity is expected to grow to 498 gigawatts (GW) by 2019, up 177% from 2014, IHS said. The projected growth is the result of a shift to a more supply-driven market with higher utilization rates, as opposed to the more demand-driven market that has led to PV manufacturing consolidation.
Global solar demand in 2019 is forecast to reach 75 GW, 66% higher than in 2014. In the next five years, 11 global markets will exceed the average annual demand level of 1 GW, Von Aichberger said.
“This large number of country markets reduces the risk of another explosion in the global PV market and of an overly strong capacity build-up,” von Aichberger said. “An increasing number of markets are entering the post-feed-in-tariff phase and embracing the integration of PV into the electricity market, which will help the market to avoid boom-and-bust situations.”
Average selling prices of standard c-Si modules are set to decline by 27% between now and 2019, decreasing to $0.45 per watt, according to the IHS forecast. The market share of thin-film modules is projected to decline to 7%this year, down from 8% in 2014, IHS said. This would represent the lowest market share since 2010, when a shortage opened the door for thin-film technology to reach a production share of 15%.
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